ELECTION 2009: ball gazing Blogger time

“As we know, there are known knowns; there are the things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

And then there’s the Bristol Blogger’s local election predictions …

Given the volatility of the polls it’s an utter waste of time this, but I’m contractually obliged to attempt local election predictions, although I refuse to do the Euro elections because nobody in their right mind gives a toss about them. The European Parliament is a job creation scheme for party timeservers.

The Scenario: 23 seats up for grabs in 23 wards.

What’s on the line: the Lib Dems need 4 seats for a majority; the Greens need one seat to get an office inside the Council House as a proper political party plus they need someone to sit next to Charlie Bolton at meetings and take him seriously; Labour need to avoid abject humiliation; the Tories need to win a few seats to stop their boss, Bunter Eddy, looking like a clueless twat (again).

The predictions:

Ashley: The Greens got within about 80 votes last time in 2007 albeit against the utterly moronic Lib Dem Shirley Marshall, admittedly before she went AWOL in Miami. Can the Greens do it this time against the more popular and hardworking “Jolly” Jon Rogers? Er, dunno to be honest. It’s too close to call but Jolly Jon’s been sounding increasingly desperate and forlorn over the last few days so I’ll say GREEN GAIN.

Avonmouth: currently held by Labour loudmouth Terry Cook who won the ward on the back of the 2005 general election. Terry was well on the way to being deselected by his local party “for doing nothing” before he voluntarily chose to “stand down” earlier this year. No general election, an unknown Labour candidate, a constituency party in disarray and a massive national swing against Labour should see the ward go to the Tories. TORY GAIN.

Bishopston: The safe seat of bearded fool, Bev Knott. LIB DEM HOLD.

Cabot: “Shocked and angry” Mark Wright’s safe seat. LIB DEM HOLD

Clifton: Incumbent Lib Dem, non-entity Brian Price, is stepping down to spend more time with his money. The new Lib Dem boy is John Blythe. Not that it matters, a retarded chimpanze could win this ward for the Lib Dems. LIB DEM HOLD.

Clifton East: Thick and theatrical Lib Dem Deputy Leader Simon Cook’s ward. It’s now a Lib Dem/Conservative marginal. But national issues like duck houses and moat dredging plus Bunter Eddy’s ineptitude should see the great big thick ponce through at the Tories expense. Hard to call but LIB DEM HOLD.

Cotham: Lib Dem safe seat where the Greens trailed a poor second in 2007. Lib Dems have an unknown candidate, Tony Negus, but he will win it at a canter. LIB DEM HOLD.

Easton: The Greens say they can win this. I say they can’t. The Lib Dems and Labour are slugging this one out with experienced heavyweight campaigner John Kiely up against Labour’s lightweight from the mosque, Mohammed Arif. Ian Onions called this for Labour on Tuesday, probably after reading the Bristol Blogger’s call a few weeks ago. I’ll call it for the Lib Dems then. LIB DEM HOLD

Eastville; former Lib Dem leader Steve “Lib Dem in a” Comer’s ward. Pretty safe. A bit of local colour with this one as good value bonkers Green blogger Vowlsie is running. He won’t win. LIB DEM HOLD.

Frome Vale: Technically a Labour/Conservative marginal. But Labour incumbent Bill Payne only won in 2005 due to the general election that year. Conservatives took the ward in 2007 and should walk it this time. Even Bunter can’t fuck this up. TORY GAIN

Henbury: the incumbent is Labour’s Derek Pickup, the most revolting politician in Bristol, who won the ward thanks to the 2005 general election. The last time the ward was contested in 2006 the Tories knocked leading local Labour lady and Terry’s missus, Claire Cook, off her perch. They should do the same to Pickup. TORY GAIN.

Henleaze: ultra safe Lib Dem ward. Current councillor Dennis Brown is standing down in favour of someone called Glenise. Not that it’s important, the Lib Dems could run a candidate called ‘Dickhead’ here and win. Railway Path campaigner, Steve Meek, is running for the Greens. Why I don’t know, as he lives in Ashley and is well-known in the East of the city. LIB DEM HOLD.

Hillfields: Should be a safe Labour seat. But is it any more? Expenses scandal and the Bunter factor should do enough to undermine any resurgent Tory challenge here, so just about LABOUR HOLD.

Horfield: On paper it’s a three-way Con/Lib Dem/Labour marginal. But national events plus the personal unpopularity, in the ward, of Labour’s sitting councillor and Executive Member Rosalie Walker – the architect of the sale of the Railway Path land at Greenbank through sheer incompetence and a total inability to manage her officers – makes it a fight between Lib Dem and Tory. Tough to call. The expenses scandal should hit the Tories but maybe not enough? TORY GAIN.

Kingsweston: Labour/Lib Dem marginal. The Lib Dems have threatened to take this ward at the last two local elections. Even with a posh developer-friendly architect from Clifton running for them this time they should do it. Although the Tories have a strong local candidate in the mix too … LIB DEM GAIN.

Lawrence Hill: Utterly hopeless and utterly pointless Labour councillor Brenda Hugill’s utterly deprived ward she’s delivered nothing for in years. Clung on in 2005 thanks to an undeserved general election boost. She hasn’t a hope in hell this time. Look out for what the Tory vote does here. They’ve got a good candidate and you suspect another couple of years of the city council’s laughably inept undergraduate regeneration/equalities/diversity/community development policies might find people seeking something more relevant to their lives. This time round though it’s an easy LIB DEM GAIN.

Lockleaze: Respect’s Jerry Hicks came second here in 2006 and he’s running again. He hasn’t got the resources he had last time out so is unlikely to improve on second. I’d like to be proved wrong but it’s a LIB DEM HOLD.

Redland: Property developer Lib Dem Jim White follows his missus out of politics and retires. The Lib Dem candidate is Fi Hance, partner of Transform’s – the legalise drugs outfit -Danny Kushlink. She ran against Brenda in Lawrence Hill in 2005 and lost but seems to have been rewarded with a safe seat. Tory blogger and whacky free market fundamentalist James Barlow is running here. Alas we’ll have to wait a little longer for his bonkers residents parking plans, taxi-led public transport policies and weirdo economics as he doesn’t have a hope. LIB DEM HOLD.

St. George East: Conservative/Labour marginal. CONSERVATIVE GAIN.

St. George West: It’s a Labour/Lib Dem marginal although the Tories will say it’s a three-way marginal. The Lib Dems won a by-election here last year. Looks like it’s bye, bye to Labour stalwart Ron Stone then. LIB DEM GAIN.

Southmead: Ultra safe Labour ward held by Labour Deputy leader Peter Hammond. Gary Hopkins has been talking up a Lib Dem challenge here and it would be great to see that destructive little party functionary shit Hammond with his fuckwitted equalities policies sent packing but it’s unlikely unless Labour have the total meltdown that’s emerging this evening … LABOUR HOLD.

Stoke Bishop: LIB DEM GAIN … Only joking. “Pompous” Peter, Bunter’s right hand man, will be back to bore the pants off us and promote supermarket new builds in South Bristol. TORY HOLD.

Westbury-On-Trym: Are you still reading this? TORY HOLD.

Scores on the doors:

Green +1

Lib Dems +2

Tory +5

Labour -7

Make up of the council:

Green 2

Lib Dems 34

Tory 18

Labour 16

What it all means:

The Lib Dems don’t get their majority. Ha! Ha! Ha! Which should spell the end of the useless Janke leadership and her cabinet of snobocrats.

Bunter wins a few seats and gets to act the twat for another year.

Labour are fucked.

And the Greens get someone to keep Charlie company and an office at the Counts Louse to devise policies for funding their middle class hobbyist organic turnip growing friends. Oh, and they’ll hold the balance of power …

TOMORROW: Election LIVE with the Bristol Blogger.

Once again as Stephen McNamara runs around the Counts Louse like a blue arsed fly dispensing useless legal advice, the Blogger will have his feet up and the wine flowing and will be reporting the election results LIVE direct from his office.

The best election coverage in Bristol from 10.oopm. HERE!!!!



This entry was posted in Bristol, Conservatives, Elections, Green Party, Labour Party, Lib Dems, Local Elections 2009, Local government, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

28 Responses to ELECTION 2009: ball gazing Blogger time

  1. James Barlow says:

    Whacky? That’s an improvement on “evil” I suppose.

  2. SteveL says:

    -not seen any Respect! posters in Lockers;, seen more (2) in Monty
    -not seen any posters at all in the Cotham area, though neil has been busy in the past fortnight
    -for some obscure reason I got a Vote James Barlow note through my door, which must be some mistake, me being in a different ward and all.

    I actually think it will be a shame if Jon Rogers doesn’t get through -he’s done more for walking and cycling in the last couple of months than any previous cabinet member for transport. He was a very active and early supporter of the railway path campaign -didn’t need any pressuring to get him to change his mind, and has helped the cycling campaign a lot. He has shown what is possible.

  3. SteveL says:

    Also, I am set up to postal vote. My vote papers did arrive today, which is too late to post off, but I can drop them in at an electoral office tomorrow, once I sellotape down the lick-to-seal seal that doesnt work.

    There is a seriously diverse set of candiates out there, from the Arthur Scargill party to some christian fundamentalists. I say: vote Kernow! Bristol can become part of a greater Cornwall, and form a union with Brittany.

  4. thebristolblogger says:

    You’re the second person to tell me the lick-to-seal seal doesnt work on the postal vote. Is this a security risk?

  5. Jon Rogers says:

    Hi BB

    Interesting predictions and analysis. I have to say I disagree with some of them!

    And thanks to SteveL for his supportive comments, much appreciated.

    Sleep well all. Tomorrow is guaranteed to be an interesting day.

    Jon

  6. chris hutt says:

    “…And the Greens get someone to keep Charlie company and an office at the Counts Louse to devise policies for funding their middle class hobbyist organic turnip growing friends.”

    Funny thing is Charlie’s posted a pork-barrel plan to entice potential Green voters this very evening.

    http://charlie-boltons-southville-blog.blogspot.com/2009/06/cycling-city.html

  7. steve meek says:

    ‘Railway Path campaigner, Steve Meek, is running for the Greens. Why I don’t know, as he lives in Ashley and is well-known in the East of the city’

    Because Daniella is better looking than me and is odds on to win in Ashley.
    Also it hosts my favourite cinema -after the cube, and it has large gardens just crying out for productive use (I’m not talking moats or duck houses at the taxpayers expense here either).
    Henleaze, Ashley….they are quite close compared with Florida so not an issue really and as green politics is about fair use of resources henleaze should be more of a target than poorer area.
    On a separate note, twittering today shows Mark Bradshaw is now supporting permanent protection for the bristol to bath railway path from use for Bus Rapid Transport, and the sale of council owned land there to an independent group dedicated to preserving it as a green space. That’s brilliant news. Shame its too late to influence voting tomorrow.
    18 months too late.

  8. chris hutt says:

    On second thoughts I suppose that should be ‘lentil-barrel’ or something.

    Oh, on a completely unrelated point can I second Steve L’s comments about the excellent work done by Jon Rogers in his brief tenure as Executive Member. He really deserves to win tomorrow.

  9. inks says:

    “Redland: Property developer Lib Dem Jim White follows his missus out of politics and retires. The Lib Dem candidate is Fi Hance, partner of Transform’s – the legalise drugs outfit -Danny Kushlink. She ran against Brenda in Lawrence Hill in 2005 and lost but seems to have been rewarded with a safe seat. Tory blogger and whacky free market fundamentalist James Barlow is running here. Alas we’ll have to wait a little longer for his bonkers residents parking plans, taxi-led public transport policies and weirdo economics as he doesn’t have a hope. LIB DEM HOLD”

    Danny’s sound as a pound but Fi’s a known nutbar and not-so-epic-fail property developer. You’ll have some blogging fun if she gets a council seat.

  10. thebristolblogger says:

    Lib Dem nutbar property developer? Must be a shoe-in for a place in Janke’s Cabinet of all the snobocrats.

  11. SteveL says:

    Are envelopes that don’t seal a security risk? Yes.

    The vote envelope outer comes with something where you sign your name and write your DOB -that part can be torn off to validate that you are who you say you are (roughly). If the inner vote bit is unsealed, whoever deals with the outer can see who I voted for, remove any ballots they don’t agree with, and, if they have access to spare ballots, substitute others. With a seal such tampering may be more obvious to others.

    I believe it would be possible to test whether the seal works on a sample of envelopes, but maybe they were running too late to fix things when the problem showed up.

  12. Do you all remember that time when David Blunket told journalists that they checked to find out how people had voted? Want to know how it’s done? Simple. When you go to the polling station, there’s that little gaggle of annoying shits hanging around outside who ask you for you polling card number. The numbers can then be analysed by a statistician, who, with data from previous elections, combined with publicly available data about where you live, whether you have kids, etc. etc., can make a pretty accurate stab at what you voted.

    How should you stop this? Simple. When they ask you for your number, tell ’em to fuck off! They have no right to know your polling number. If they are standing within the bounds of the polling station itself, then they are breaking the law and you can complain to the officer in charge of the polling station… they can in turn tell the Police to remove the party twats.

    Keep your vote your own, and keep it secret!

  13. Anarchist606 says:

    Good write up, Blogger.

    Just gone to vote and I had no idea how many candidates there are on the MEP list for the South West – including the Christ is Risen or somthing like that party. Needless to say, they didn’t get my vote…

  14. SteveL says:

    @Anarchist666. You realise, that on judgement day, your failure to vote for the Christ is Risen! party in the 2009 EU elections will be taken into account and used against you?

  15. anarchist606 says:

    You are right SteveL, on my day of Judgement I am going down…

    Wish I had read their policy stuff as there are burning issues I would have voted for:
    – discouragement of the practice of addressing women as Ms..
    – In Wales the party wants to change the Welsh flag, because it views the red dragon as a satanic symbol, they would replace it with the cross of Saint David.

    As I say, this people have got their finger on the pulse of reality! Christ is Risen for MEP!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Christian_Party

  16. SteveL says:

    -9pm curfew for small children
    -more beating of children at home
    -bring back the death penalty
    -grimmer sundays (you have had to experience a sunday in the Outer Hebrides to appreciate this)

    Looks like a party designed to appeal to the Scottish Daily Mail readers. Don’t get the Ms thing though.

  17. Glenn Vowles says:

    Eastville,
    “A bit of local colour with this one as good value bonkers Green blogger Vowlsie is running. He wont win.”

    Come on Eastville – prove the Bristol Blogger wrong and Vote Vowlsie, your Green candidate!! The others dont have alliteration on their side now do they!

  18. The Blogger says:

    Vowlsie, we’re saving you for the mother of all battles with Gary in Knowle next year.

    We’re counting down the days already to that in-depth debate on the technicalities of waste disposal ..

  19. old misery guts says:

    What’s an anarchist doing voting?

  20. The Bristol Blogger says:

    There’s no rules!

    Not voting is the conventional way to be unconventional these days for anarchists, so if you wanna be really unconventional …

  21. chris hutt says:

    GV – “The others dont have alliteration on their side now do they!”

    Comer’s Coming Home?

  22. Sorry to hear that Jon probably won’t be on here to take our abuse anymore, as he’s going off to live on Turbo Island…

    … I’m planning my onslaught against Daniella already… once she’s in I guarantee it won’t be long before she says something truly loopy, and Green with a capital “C” (for commie)… and she’ll have to be given a good radishing!

  23. thebristolblogger says:

    Yeah. Two week honeymoon period,then it’ll start …

  24. What? A whole two weeks?

  25. Forest Pines says:

    I’m always slightly amused that that bizarre the-Welsh-flag-is-satanic-party is, I believe, largely funded from the royalties on “So Macho!” by Sinitta, and other similar 80s dance hits.

  26. Jon Rogers says:

    Just catching up 🙂

  27. The Bristol Blogger says:

    Enjoyed the fancy dress last night Jon. Shirley’s parrot was good but you and your colleagues turning up as the city’s leading politicians was hilarious.

  28. Jules says:

    “experienced heavyweight campaigner John Kiely”

    BB, I’m ashamed of you. Surely you mean “twat”?

    Jules

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