Get ready to gamble… The Bristol Blookie’s EXCLUSIVE will-not-be-beaten odds on the outcome of tomorrow night’s council meeting. (Brought to you LIVE from next door to Teddy’s Tiny Tots Nursery, Alcester)
3 – 1: Lib Dem minority administration supported by Labour.
Expect a very different approach tomorrow night from Labour leader Helen Holland after her embarrassing backfire last week. Gone will be the sneering, snarling grandstanding for the benefit of their invited audience of trade unionists and home care workers. Instead Helen and her party may well attempt a charm offensive and be very much in caring, sharing, listening mode. Maybe they will even talk about searching for consensus on this difficult issue?
The likeliest resolution to the current impasse is the “form of words” solution. The Labour Party are seeking “movement” from the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are happy to “take some time” and “pause for reflection” before going forward. Expect some form of words around these ideas carefully crafted to save Labour’s face and satisfy the trade unions, at least in the short term.
There is a tricky balance with this resolution. “The form of words” must appear to give the impression that the home care service is saved while promising no such thing. In the long term this type of deal is likely to lead to the privatisation of the home care service although there may be a 3 month 0r so delay while the trail goes cold.
9 – 2: Lib Dem minority administration after Tory Abstention.
If attempts at the “form of words” solution break down then the Tories will push for a Labour-Tory coalition ostensibly to save the home care service. Although this will in reality be a grubby grab for power by Eddy and Abraham. This is likely to be rejected by Labour who do not want power as they know they can’t deliver on their election promises.
Labour’s refusal to take power may frustrate the Tories into abstaining if a further vote for a minority Lib Dem administration takes place. This would let the Lib Dems in. This resolution will lead to the privatisation of home care.
5 – 1: No agreement reached
The meeting breaks down with no agreement reached after another night of petty squabbling.
10 – 1: Labour – Tory Coalition
Unlikely to happen as Labour will resist power at all costs although they are stupid enough to back themselves into a corner where this is their only option.
On paper this should save the home care service. In reality, The Blogger is less sure.
12 – 1: Lib Dem – Tory coalition
This is the wild card option. Nobody has spoken about this at all. The Tories and Lib Dems are at each others’ throats although both parties are instinctive outsourcers and privatisers and the Tories are desperate for some power…
Stranger things have happened. The outcome for home care would be privatisation.
18 -1: Green Leader
If the meeting becomes entirely chaotic, a combination of abstentions, back bench indiscipline and Labour panic could provide this extraordinary – if unlikely – outcome.
Charlie Bolton has said he will go for it if necessary. It’s one of the few options that might save the home care service though.
20 – 1: Minority Labour administration
The combination of Labour not wanting power in any circumstances and the Tory desire for seats in cabinet makes this very unlikely. Labour need Tory support to form an administration and the Tories would only give that support in exchange for power.
On paper this should save the home care service. In reality, The Blogger is less sure.
25 – 1: Minority Tory administration
Very unlikely. The Blogger suggests everyone leaves town immediately if Bunter takes charge.
I might actually go along tomorrow night and watch this show unfold! Although I also see there from Indymedia there is another homecare rally there, and I dont really want to be sat in the middle of that…
This “Form of words” solution sounds likely. As I understand it, the Lib Dems said at the last meeting that they would “pause and re-evaluate” the policy. Labour though were demanding the apparently-completely-different that they “Stop and rebuild” the policy. Seems to me an element of semantic nonsense in all that. Basically means the same thing.
I guess Labour want a form of words that will allow them to crow “a big victory for the workers” and all that crap, and “forced the Lib Dems to u-turn” and allows them not to be slaughtered by the union activists for betraying them.
The Lib Dems want a form of words that doesnt look like a u-turn, and still allows them to look at all options.
I havent worked out what the hell the Tories want, but then with Dick Eddy in charge that’s hardly surprising!